The just published US Government reports, that Iran scrapped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 has brought elation to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and consternation to US Administration officials, most notably US President Bush. Israeli government and military officials are more than disturbed by the report which means that any American military plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities have been scuttled, and that the Iranian government has now come out of this affair smelling like a rose.
After reading a number of articles and commentaries on this subject over the weekend, including reactions by all “interested parties” concerned, I have made the following conclusions:
1. That this report isn’t real, but is in the same light of reports given to the U.S. Administration prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, regarding WMD’s and nuclear capability of now executed Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. In this episode, Bush and Co. wanted to take over Iraq for both the oil and as a promise made by Bush Jr. to Bush Sr.(to kick Saddam’s butt) following the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War. The US is not at all capable or willing to “kick Ahmadinejad butt” and needs a way to bow out gracefully from any planned attack.
2. That the report is real and the Bush’s hands are tied because of it. It also makes him look a bit like the kid who fell into a mud puddle on the way home from school.
Whatever answer is correct, Israeli military officials hope to convince the U.S. Joints Chief of Staff head, Admiral Michael Mullen, otherwise when he visits Israel on Sunday. The Iranian president, for his part, feels like the cat who swallowed the canary, and is making no bones about how he has figuratively emasculated both the Americans and Israelis following this bit of news.
This intelligence report, that supposedly came about by members of the US National Intelligence teams, could not have come at a worse time for both the Republican led Administration, as well as Republican US presidential candidates. Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama are having a field day in using this revelation in their campaign rhetoric.
However convincing this report may be, anybody to really believes that the Iranians have no intention on building a nuclear bomb is even stupider than British Foreign Minister Neville Chamberlain was in 1938 when he called his country’s acceptance of Nazi Germany’s takeover of the Sudetenland and Czechoslovakia as “peace in our time”.
The Iranians, Mahmud Ahmadinejad anyway, want only one thing; and that is the complete elimination of the State of Israel. If that “elimination” requires the use of a nuke, then so be it; as far he is concerned anyway. Israel, for all the IDF’s intelligence gathering and planning, cannot take on the task of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities on it’s own as Iran is simply too large and it’s nuclear facilities too scattered around, with many of them far underground.
The only thing that may prevent that country from becoming a nuclear power by 2009 (or earlier) it’s own people deciding that “enough is enough” concerning their government’s Islamic hard stance, especially that of Ahmadinejad and Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It would be even better if the Iranian people come to the conclusion that they have had enough of the Ayatollahs themselves.
At this state in time, however, this isn’t likely to happen, and Mr. Ahmadinejad and his Mullah religious leaders seem to be definitely on the (nuclear) horse.